基于模糊集理论的岩溶地区水资源安全评价

Evaluation System of Water Resource Security in Karst Region Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

指出了岩溶地区水资源短缺主要是由于岩溶地貌发育，水资源可获取性差，利用难度大造成的。为合理评价岩溶地区水资源安全，在模糊集理论基本原理的基础上，结合西南岩溶地区水资源的特点，选取了体现岩溶地区水资源特性的评价指标，构建了水资源安全评价模型。，井对2004-2013年贵州省水资源安全状况进行了评价。结果表明：贵州省水资源安全整体水平达到临界安全，历年评价平均值为0.606，但区域差异性明显，呈东南向西北递减趋势；其中，黔南、遵义水资源安全水平较高，评价均值分别为0．919（Ⅰ级）、0．839（Ⅱ级）。六盘水和毕节水资源安全水平较低，分别为0．1（V级）和0．4（V级），其余地区介于两者之间；各地州水资源安全水平年际变异性大，平均变异系数为0．477。分析认为，加大水利设施建设投资力度，保护现有水资源，提高水资源开发利用率才是解决贵州岩溶地区水资源安全问题的关键。

This paper pointed out that the water shortage in karst region was mainly caused by the development of karst landform, the low availability and difficult utilization of water resources. To reasonably evaluate the water resource security of karst region, based on the basic principle of fuzzy set theory and combined with the characteristics of water resources in karst areas of Southwest China, we selected the evaluation index which reflected the character- istics of water resources in karst areas, constructed the evaluation model of water resources security, and evaluated the water resources security in Guizhou Province in 2004-- 2013. Results showed that water resources safety in Guizhou only achieved the overall level of criticality safety and the evaluation of the calendar year average value was 0. 606. However, the regional difference was obvious, which showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest; among them, water resources security in Guizhou and Zunyi were in high levels, and the values were the 0. 919 （grade I）, 0. 839 （grade II）, respectively. The water resource security levels in Liupanshui and Bijie were low, and evaluation values were 0.1 （grade V） and 0.4 （grade V） ,and the values of the rest areas lied in between. Around the states, the interannual variation of water resource security levels were large and the average value of variation was 0. 477. According to the analysis, it was believed that the investment intensity of water conservancy facilities construction, the protection of the existing water resources., and the utilization rate of water resource development were the key to solve the problem of water resource security in karst areas of Guizhou.