“成熟时机”理论研究述评

A Re-evaluation of Ripeness Theory

扎特曼在上世纪80年代正式提出"成熟时机"概念,即当冲突各方陷入"相互伤害僵持"状态并意识到现实中存在冲突解决的"出口"时,就是进入谈判的最佳时期。自提出之日起,"成熟时机"就成为冲突解决理论和谈判理论中一个极具研究价值的概念。经过30多年的发展,"成熟时机"理论不论是在理论建设还是在实证运用方面都获得了巨大的突破。鉴于国内学界在该领域的研究尚属空白,本文希望能对"成熟时机"理论的发展做出相对完善的分析,并就该研究所面临的瓶颈以及今后发展方向等问题做出评估。

I. William Zartman raised the concept of ＂the ripe moments＂ in the 1980s. This concept refers to the opportune moment for conflicting parties to enter negotiations when these parties are entrapped in a ＂hurting stalemate＂ and realize the existence of ＂exits＂ for settling the conflicts in reality. Ever since this concept was invented, the theory of ＂ripe moments＂ has been accepted as an academically valuable concept of the theories of conflict settlements and negotiations. Through over thirty years＇ development, enormous breakthroughs have been made in both theoretic constrictions and empirical applications of the theory of ＂ripe moments＂. However, little has been mentioned among China＇s domestic academic circles on this theory or its related fields. Therefore, this paper hopes to take a relatively consummate analysis on this concept and make some assessments on such issues as the bottlenecks and possible future directions of the researches related to this concept.