德国智库对欧盟中东政策的影响机制研究:以SWP为例

The Impact Mechanism of German Think Tanks on EU's Middle East Policy: A Case Study on the Role of SWP

本文从"权力场中心空间"的视角与"多源流决策"模型相结合的理论范式出发,在归纳欧盟成员国智库影响欧盟决策总体机制的基础上,选取"德国国际与安全事务研究所"(简称SWP)这一具有典型意义的欧盟成员国智库作为观察对象,以当前欧盟的中东政策里正在经历重大调整的两项架构:欧洲睦邻政策和难民政策作为案例,从四方面入手,分析该研究所对欧盟调整这两项架构的决策发挥影响的机制。首先,对比该研究所的建言记录与欧盟的政策文件,以评估其发挥影响的节奏与效果;其次,分析该研究所的出版物与欧盟决策的关联,以考察其短期间接影响;再次,梳理其相关研究项目和参与的智库协作架构,以阐释其长期间接影响;第四,统计和整理该研究所经由"旋转门"体制与德国和欧盟政治体系之间的人员交流,以明晰其长期直接影响。该研究所影响欧盟中东政策的运作机制,折射出欧盟成员国智库作为欧盟"决策共同体"的组成部分,通过"双层四方"的欧洲智库体系,对欧盟决策活动发挥的独特作用。

This paper starts out from a paradigm that combines the perspective of ＂central space of political power fields＂ and ＂multiple policy stream＂ model, explains the overall mechanism through which the EU member states＇ think tanks exert their influences on EU policymaking, and then chooses the German Institute for International and Security Affairs （SWP） as a typical case for study. An observation and interpretation is made on SWP＇s mechanism of posing influence on EU policymaking over two major policy frames that are under fundamental transformation by EU at present ： European Neighborhood Policy （ENP） and migra- tion policy for handling the refugee crisis, through four aspects of analyses ： First, some substantive connec- tions and occurrence sequence between SWP＇s policy advice records and EU＇s policy documents are ex- plored, so as to assess SWP＇s overall influence; Second, the connections between the fluctuation of the number of SWP＇s publications and that of EU＇s policy papers are analyzed, which indicates SWP＇s short term indirect influence to some degree; Third, the SWP＇s related research projects and its participations in some Europe-wide think tank networks are put together to vividly display its long term indirect influence; Fourth, the ＂revolving door＂ mechanism between SWP and the EU and German political systems are de- tailed to etch out the contours of its long term direct influence. In brief, this case study aims at revealing the unique roles of EU member states＇ think tanks such as SWP in EU＇s policymaking as they act in the ＂doub- le-level-four-party＂ European think tank system as an integral part of the EU ＂policy community＂.