珠三角经济增长的进出口弹性分析

An Analysis of Import and Export Elasticity for Economic Growth in the Pearl River Delta

通过珠三角九市十年的面板数据,对珠三角地区进出口对其经济增长的影响进行了非参数估计。珠三角经济增长受进出口的影响比较大,自我保护和对冲击自我消化的能力不强,主要是由于珠三角贸易伙伴高度集中,进出口贸易中劳动密集型和低附加值的加工贸易产品比重较大,进出口过分依赖外商投资。因此,必须优化贸易伙伴结构,加快加工贸易转型升级,提高引进外资的质量和档次并积极培育本土企业的发展,使进出口贸易能更好地促进珠三角经济的增长。

Non-parametric estimation is carried out to study the impact of total export and irroort on econonic growth in the Pearl River Delta, by using nine cities panel data from 2005 to 2014. Econonic growth is closely related to export and import in the Pearl River Delta, because of business partnels＇ high concentration in the Pearl River Delta, large proportion of labor-intensive and low value-added processing trade products, and over-reliance on foreign investment. Therefore, it＇s suggested to optimize trading partners＇ structure, accelerate the tmnsforrmtion and upgrading of processing trade, in＇prove the quality of foreign investment and develop local enterprises.