基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的安徽省电力消费量预测

The Forecasting of the Electric Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GM( 1,1) Model

利用2005~2012年安徽省电力消费量统计数据,建立了一个电力消费量预测的灰色GM（1,1）模型.模拟结果表明,灰色GM（1,1）模型比较合理地反应了安徽省电力消费量的增长趋势,并且预测精度较高,误差较小,为电力消费量预测提供了一个科学而有效的方法.

Based on 2005 to 2012 statistical data of electric consumption in Anhui province, a grey GM （ 1, 1 ） model is established. Simulation result shows that the grey GM （ 1,1 ） model relatively reasonably reflects the increasing trend of the electric consumption, that the precision of the prediction is relatively high and that the pre- diction error is comparatively low. This paper has obtained an effective method to forecast electric consumntion.