资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证

Spatial agglomeration of resource industry and regional economic growth:an empirical study of ‘resource curse'

针对"资源诅咒"研究中自然资源度量指标选取存在的科学性问题,利用资源产业空间集聚代替自然资源丰裕度和资源产业依赖度作为自然资源丰裕程度的解释变量。首先,在Krugman空间基尼系数的基础上,构建适用于测度资源产业空间集聚的计算公式,基于我国30个省(区、市)层面的数据,量化1999—2013年间资源产业的空间集聚程度,分析其排名情况和分布格局。研究显示:我国有15个省(区、市)存在资源产业空间集聚现象,这些地区大多位于长江以北,且均为自然资源富集地区。其次,构建经济增长计量模型,选取存在资源产业空间集聚现象的省(区、市)作为样本空间,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业空间集聚度与区域经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业空间集聚的系数符号均为负,且在5%的水平上显著,说明资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长间的关系呈现负相关,符合"资源诅咒"的基本假设。2在模型分步估计中,人力资本投资、技术创新投入和制造业发展与区域经济增长正相关,符合经典经济增长理论的逻辑关系;物质资本投资与区域经济增长负相关,可能是由于当地经济主体的消费跨期替代弹性较小,导致物质资本投资对经济增长的直接增益效应小于其对社会人力资本积累的负向效应,进而阻碍区域经济增长;政府干涉程度越高越不利于经济增长。根据研究结果,建议应明确市场调节为主、政府调控为辅的导向机制,进一步提升资源产业空间集聚程度,强化行业人员素质与技术水平匹配,逐步提高自然资源生产和利用效率,从而实现加快地区经济转型,有效促进经济可持续发展的全面提升。

Aimed at the scientific problem of natural resources index selection in ＇ resource curse＇ study, the spatial agglomeration of resource industry was used instead of the abundance of natural resources and the dependence of resource industry as explanatory variable for the natural resource abundance in this paper. Firstly, based on the Gini coefficient of Krugman, it constructed the calculation formula suitable for measuring the spatial agglomeration of resource industry. Based on the data of 30 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities） in China, the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry during 1999 -2013 was analyzed. The research indicated that 15 resource-abundant provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities ） in China which were mainly located in the north of the Yangtze River had spatial agglomeration of resource industry. Secondly, this paper constructed the econometric model, selected the province （autonomous regions and municipalities） which had spatial agglomeration of resource industry as sample space, used a variety of econometric analysis and testing methods to study the direct and indirect relationship between the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry and regional economic growth, and analyzed the transmission mechanism of ‘ resource curse＇. The results showed that：① in the whole estimation model, the coefficient signs of spatial agglomeration of resource industrial were significantly negative correlated at the level of 0. 05. It indicated that the regional economic growth was negatively related to the spatial agglomeration of resource industry, which was in accordance with the basic assumption of ＇resource curse＇. ②In the step estimation model, the regional economic growth was positively correlated with the increase of human capital investment, technological innovation investment and the development of manufacturing industry, which accorded with logical relation of classical economic growth theory. The material capital investment and regional economic growth were negatively related, due to the fact that the local economic subject had less intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption, leading to the direct gain of economic growth from physical capital investment being less than the negative effect that of human capital accumulation, and thus hindeing the regional economic growth. The higher degree of government intervention, the lower economic growth was. According to the research results, it is suggested that we should strengthen the economic guiding mechanism which mainly relies on the market regulation, supplimented by government regulation, to further enhance the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry, and improve the staff quality matched to the technology development and raise the efficiency of production and utilization of natural resources gradually, so as to accelerate the transformation of the regional economy and to promote the sustainable development of economy.