电力发展对中国经济增长的影响及其区域差异

Effect of electricity development on China's economic growth and its regional difference

1990年以来,随着中国电力体制改革的深入,电力基础设施与经济同步发展。由于电力生产与电力消费存在着显著的空间差异,电力发展对经济增长的影响可能存在空间差异。本文利用1990—2011年省级面板数据,基于增长回归模型,采用动态面板分析方法,以电力投资率和发电装机容量作为衡量电力发展的指标,检验电力发展对经济增长的影响以及这种影响的区域间差异。实证研究的主要发现如下:首先,电力发展对经济增长有显著的正面影响,而且其长期影响明显高于短期影响。其中,电力投资率每增加1个百分点,短期经济增长率提高0.076个百分点,长期经济增长率提高0.493个百分点;发电装机容量每增加1个百分点,短期经济增长率提高0.381个百分点,长期经济增长率提高1.905个百分点。其次,电力发展对经济增长的影响具有显著的地区差异,对东部地区的经济增长影响显著高于西部地区。其中,电力投资率增加1个百分点对东部地区的经济增长率影响高于西部地区达0.913个百分点;电力装机容量增加1个百分点对东部地区的经济增长率影响高于西部地区达0.959个百分点。实证结果表明,电力发展对各地区经济增长影响是不平衡的,这种影响对区域经济协调发展起到了负面作用。基于实证研究,给出如下政策建议:首先,考虑到中国经济在未来20年中仍将保持较高增速,中国应继续促进电力发展投资,以促进经济增长。其次,从政策导向来看,电力发展政策应当充分加强电力发展对区域协调发展的作用,使得西部地区能从电力输出中获得更高收益,提高电力发展对区域经济增长影响的公平性。

With the regulation reforms of power sector since 1990, the development of electricity infrastructure is associated with economic development in China. Due to the significant regional differences of power generation and consumption, the effect of electricity development on economic growth may differ across the regions. Using the provincial-level panel data in China from 1990 to 2011 and adopting the dynamic panel analysis estimation based on growth regression model, this paper investigates the growth effect of electricity development which is measured by electricity investment and installed capacity of electricity, and examines the regional difference of this effect. The main empirical findings of this paper can be summarized as follows. First, the electricity development has a significantly positive effect on economic growth in China and the long-run effect is larger than the short-run effect. For examples, one percentage-point increase in electricity investment （ percentage of GDP） generates 0. 076 percentage-point increase in the short-term economic growth rate and 0.493 percentage-point increase in the long-term economic growth rate ; one percentage-point increase in the installed capacity of electricity generates 0. 381 and 1. 905 percentage-point increase in the short-term and the long-term economic growth rate respectively. Second, the effect of electricity development on economic growth has a significant regional difference. For examples, for one percentage-point increase in electricity investment （ percentage of GDP）, the growth effect is 0.913 percentage-point higher in the coastal regions than that in the west regions ; for one percentage-point increase in the installed capacity of electricity, the growth effect is 0. 959 percentage-point higher in the coastal regions than that in the west regions. These results imply that the growth effect of electricity development is unbalanced across different regions, which imposes a negative effect for the coordinated development of regional economy. Based on the empirical results, some policy suggestions are offered. First, considering that China is still expected to keep a relative high growth rate in the next two decades, China needs to promote the investment to the electricity sector to facilitate economic growth. Second, the electricity development policies should sufficiently enhance the role of electricity development on the coordinated development of regional economy through the west regions benefiting more from electricity output, and improve the equality of electricity development＇s growth effect across the regions.