全球能源经济可计算一般均衡模型研究综述

Review of research on global energy-economic computable general equilibrium models

全球能源经济可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)模型是研究低碳政策对能源经济系统影响的主要工具,在国际低碳经济研究领域具有重要作用。全球能源经济CGE模型发展起始于20世纪70年代,经过数十年的拓展已经形成了一批发展成熟且应用广泛的模型平台。我国能源经济CGE模型研究开始于20世纪90年代,研究领域主要聚焦在中国本土与国内区域,而在全球尺度上的模型研究尚处于起步阶段。伴随我国在全球气候治理当中的重要性凸显,中国能源环境问题的研究需要具有国际视野。本文对当前全球能源经济CGE模型的研究现状进行分析,对全球CGE模型的主要作用与特点做出评价,并对典型模型进行比较,在介绍了模型优缺点的基础上对全球能源经济CGE模型的发展趋势与关键问题进行讨论,并对中国未来发展全球模型给出具体建议。全球能源经济CGE模型政策评估的主要优点是评估基于坚实的理论基础,可以根据相关理论判断模型结果是否合理并对政策的作用机制与影响结果做出基于经济规律的解释;以及能源与经济系统整体协调一致的相互作用机制。能源经济CGE模型主要争议性问题包括结果依赖大量参数且参数取值不稳健,以及模型假设过于理想且技术表达抽象。当前能源经济CGE模型研究的关键问题与主要趋向包括:关键参数的实证研究与准确校核、经济系统异质化与细节化描述、技术细节表述与内生化变革以及非理想与不均衡市场条件建模。建议中国开发全球模型应充分借鉴全球先进模型开发的基础与经验,在当前全球模型主流框架下重点研究发展中国家在非理想与不均衡市场环境下经济行为表述的改进,同时注重模型基础数据的整理与重要参数的校核。

Global energy-economic computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is the main tool in the assessment of low-carbon policies effects on the energy and economy systems, and plays an important role in low-carbon economy research. The development of global energy economic CGE models started in the 1970s, and after decades several model platforms have been established and widely applied. In China, the research of energy economic CGE models has conducted since 1990s, mainly based on national and regional perspectives, and the research of the global models is still in the early stage. With increasingly important China＇ s global climate governance, research on energy and environmental issues in China needs to have an international outlook. This paper first summarized the present situation of global energy economic CGE models, evaluated the main functions and features of these models, and compared the features of several typical energy economic computable general equilibrium models. Beyond that, it discussed the trend and key issues of global energy economic CGE models, and put forward suggestions for the global model development in China. The main advantages of global energy economic CGE models are that their assessment based on solid theoretical foundation allows the people to judge and explain the model results from economic theories and interactive mechanism works to realize the coordination between energy and economic systems. Major critics on CGE models are their results sensitive to parameter assumptions which is hard to calibrate, their ideal market assumption, and the lack of technology details. The key issues and research trend of global energy economic models includes ： the empirical analysis and detail calibration of key parameters, more detail description on economic heterogeneity, technology description and endogenous evolution, and models under imperfect and disequilibrium situation. We suggest that the modellers in China should develop their global model based on the existing framework of advanced global models and focus on the improvement of description of characters of developing economy, such as imperfect and disequilibrium market, in the model. The collection of basic data and the local calibration of key parameters should also be emphasized.