基于纳污能力控制的省区初始排污权ITSP配置模型

Inexact two-stage stochastic programming model of provincial initial emission rights allocation under the total emission control of water pollutants

省区初始排污权配置具有多阶段性、复杂性及不确定性特征。面向水功能区限制纳污红线约束,根据省区初始排污权配置的基本假设,引入区间数和随机数来描述不确定性信息,以因省区初始排污权配置产生的经济效益为第1个阶段,以因承担减排责任而可能产生的治污损失为第2个阶段,设计实现流域经济效益最优的目标函数,并以配置结果能够体现社会效益、生态环境效益和社会经济发展连续性为约束条件,构建基于纳污能力控制的省区初始排污权区间两阶段随机规划(ITSP)配置模型,分水污染物类别确定不同减排情形下的省区初始排污权配置方案。在三种减排情形下,2020年太湖流域各省区的初始排污权配置结果表明:1江苏省、浙江省和上海市的COD初始排污权配置区间量没有明显变化,其NH3-N和TP初始排污权配置区间量总体呈上升或递增趋势;2太湖流域各省区因初始排污权的配置产生的总体经济效益最优区间数分别为[335.35,399.75]亿元、[336.63,401.11]亿元和[339.08,402.74]亿元,最优区间数的下限值、上限值及期望值总体呈上升或递增趋势。分类确定不同减排情形下的配置方案,并提出方案实施的政策建议,为排污权配置决策提供更为准确的决策空间。

Provincial initial emission rights allocation has the features of multi-stages, complexity and uncertainty. Settling up to the water pollution restriction in water function district and combining the basic assumptions, and using the probability distribution and interval parameters to express the uncertainty of the allocation, this paper takes the economic benefits produced by provincial initial emission rights allocation as the first stage, and takes the pollution treatment cost caused by provincial reduction responsibility as the second stage ; it designs the objective function for optimal economic benefits, which is constrained by condition that configuration results contain social benefits and eco-environment benefits and sustainable development. And then it builds the Inexact Two-Stage Stochastic Programming （ITSP） model for provincial initial emission rights allocation upon the total water emission control ,which is to obtain the allocation schemes of provincial initial emission rights in categories of water pollutants under different emission reduction situations. Being constrained by three emission patterns as h = 1,2,3, the calculated results of provincial initial emission rights allocation of Taihu Basin in 2020 are as follows.① There are no obvious changes between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in interval quantity of COD initial emission rights according to NH3-N and TP, it will increase or trends to rise. ② The optimal interval number of overall economic effects produced by provincial initial emission rights allocation of Taihu Basin is [ 33. 535, 39. 975 ] billion yuan（ CNY）, [ 33. 663, 40.111 ] billion yuan and [ 33. 908, 40. 274 ] billion yuan, the lower limiting value, the upper limit value and the expected value presents an increase or trends to rise. Getting the allocation schemes of provincial initial emission rights constrained by different emission patterns is to provides more accurate decision scope for emission rights allocation decisions, and then some related implementation suggestions are proposed.