基于巴斯扩散模型的中国新型城市化包容性发展预测

Forecast of Inclusive Development in China's New Urbanization Based on Bass Diffusion Model

新型城市化包容性发展是一种新的发展模式,准确把握其发展特征和趋势有助于促进城市和谐发展。本文在辨明新型城市化包容性发展的内涵的基础上,从高效发展、公平发展、友好发展三个维度构建指标体系,使用巴斯扩散模型预测中国的东部、中部、西部和东北部四大区域未来8年的发展趋势,进而通过对比分析提出政策启示。结果显示:四大区域各指标权重相似,但东部受友好发展维度影响较大,东北部受高效发展维度影响较大;四大区域的新型城市化包容性发展主要受已有的相关发展成果激励;东部将最早达到峰值得分,中部和西部其次,东北部将最慢,但峰值得分从大到小的排序与扩散速度相反;这一自然得分趋势会对区域的发展造成相应的助力或阻力。

Inclusive development in new urbanization is a new development pattern. Figuring out the developing characteris- tic and the tendency of it is significant for promoting the harmonious development. On the basis of defining inclusive devel- opment in new urbanization, indicators system is built from three aspects-efficient development, equitable development and friendly development. Bass diffusion model is used to predict the score of the four major economic regions which are the east, the central, the west and the northeast for future 8 years, some constructive proposals are put forward through compari- son and analysis. The result shows ： the indicator weight of the four major economic regions is similar, but friendly develop- ment is more important to the east,while efficient development is more important to the northeast; the inclusive development in new urbanization of the four major economic regions is mainly caused by existing development results;the east will a- chieve the maximum value at the soonest, the central and the west will be second to the east, the northeast will be the slo- west, but the rank of maximum value is contrary to the rank of spread speed ; the score trends will be assistance or resistance to the regional development.