中国股票市场价格影响因素研究

The Impact Factors of Stock Prices in China

文章选择货币供应量M2、法定存款准备金率、金融机构人民币贷款总额三个指标作为货币政策手段代表,以沪深300指数作为股票市场价格代表,通过建立变量间的回归模型,进行变量的平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验及脉冲响应分析.实证结果显示,货币供应量与我国股市价格呈正相关,金融机构人民币贷款数额、法定存款准备金率与股市价格呈反相关.

This paper chooses three indicators,including M2,reserve requirement ratio and the total amount of RMB loans,as monetary policy representatives,and the CSI 300 index as stock market price representative.Through building regression model between variables,ADF test,Co integration test,Grange test and pulse response analysis,we find that： there is a positive correlation between money supply and Chinese stock prices; the amount of RMB loans and reserve requirement ratio respectively have negative correlations with Chinese stock prices.