前瞻性、后顾性与混合型泰勒规则对我国货币政策的适用性研究

Study on Adaptability of Forward-Looking,Backward-Looking and Hybrid Taylor Rule in China's Monetary Policy

通过构建前瞻性、后顾性和混合型泰勒规则的反应函数,从管制利率和市场利率两个角度,分别检验三种泰勒规则对我国货币政策的适用性。结果表明:前瞻性泰勒规则反应函数效果更好,更能描述我国利率的具体走势;利用市场利率更能够体现货币政策逆周期调控特征,更适合作为我国利率操作目标。因此,央行在制定货币政策时应进一步增强调控的前瞻性,继续稳步推进利率市场化改革,促进我国经济转型升级。

This paper estimates the forward-looking,backward-looking and hybrid Taylor Rule's reaction function,and then respectively tests the three different Taylor Rule from two aspects of market interest rate and regulated interest rate.The result shows that the forward-looking Taylor Rule reaction function can describe the specific path of interest rates in China better.Market interest rate can represent the characteristic of counter-cyclical regulation in monetary policy better.So,the central bank should further strengthenforward-looking in regulation when setting the monetary policy.Meanwhile,the government should promote the market reform on interest rate steadily,which is conducive to economic restructuring and promoting transformation and upgrading of China's economy.