当前美国对华政策的辩论、选择与走势分析

Current Debates over the US-China Policy in the U.S.:Choices and Trend

当前,美国政策精英就美国对华政策展开了一场全方位、多元化的政策大辩论。"务实容纳论""接触合作论""反省妥协论""接触融合论""接触遏制论""遏制论"等不同认识在碰撞互动。美国决策精英正弱化以往对华接触与融合的政策基调,缓慢但却明显地推动对华政策朝着挤撞方向发展。美国对中方意图的习惯性误判、美中两国国际秩序观的差异、美国认定其国内问题的"责任在中国"等因素,导致美国对华政策始终带有强烈的悲剧性色彩。在此次美国对华政策大辩论和大调整中,走出"领导陷阱"、学会"换位思考"、认清"戴维斯陷阱",将有助于美国理性地认识中国和保持稳定的中美关系。

US policy elites are currently debating about US-China policy. They have made many comprehensive analyses and got multi-dimensional perspectives,such as those of pragmatic accommodation,engagement-cooperation,introspective compromise, engagement-integration, and engagement-containment,and containment,which often conflict or interact with one another. US policymaking elites are lowering the previously dominant tone of USChina policy of engagement-integration and turning slowly but definitely toward a policy of jostling and confrontation. The US's pessimistic tone in USChina relationship can be attributed to its habitual misjudgment of China's intention,the discrepancy in China's and US concepts of international order,and US's way of putting its blame for its domestic problems on China.In debates and adjustments,if the US could step out of the 'leadership trap',learn to think in other's shoes,and watch out for 'Davis trap',it would be able to have a better understanding of China and maintain a stable relationship between U.S. and China.