城市地铁列车易晚点区间识别方法研究

Study on identification method of high delay interval of urban railway system

基于列车区间旅行时间理论分布,分析追踪列车组中后车区间旅行时间的重分布,得出追踪列车组中后车的区间旅行时间分布函数,其为前行列车区间旅行时间的条件概率函数。通过定义追踪列车组区间旅行时间可靠性,研究追踪列车组区间旅行时间可靠度计算方法,进一步研究满足期望可靠度α0=0.2下的易晚点高发区间的辨识方法。通过深圳地铁5号线实例,展示了易晚点高发区间的辨识方法计算过程,给出可靠度α0=0.2时的深圳市地铁5号线下行方向6个晚点高发区间,分别为区间7,8,21,23,25和26。

Based on theoretical distribution of train interval travel time, and the analysis of redistribution of the later train interval travel time of the track train set, the later train interval travel time distribution function of the track train set was obtained, which is a conditional probability function of the ahead train interval travel time. By defining the track train set interval travel time reliability, the track train set interval travel time reliability calcula-tion method was studied, which meets the expectation reliability a0 = 0.2. Taking the No.5 Shenzhen subway as an example, after calculating the track train set interval travel time reliability under the train operation plan, 6 inter-vals of high delay interval on the No.5 Shenzhen subway is identified. Those intervals includes interval 7, 8, 21, 23, 25 and 26.