BJ-RUC模式的低层风场预报产品质量检验——以甘肃省当金山风电场为例

Quality Assessment of Low-level Wind Prediction Product by BJ-RUC Model: A Case Study of Akesai Wind Farm in Gansu Province

利用2013年甘肃华电阿克塞当金山49.5 m W风电场风机监控数据采集系统的观测数据,对BJ-RUC模式的低层风场预报产品进行质量检验。结果表明:(1)总体上有效风速区在各季节预测效果较满发风速区好,且这2个风速区秋季预报效果最好,冬季预报效果最差;(2)年尺度上,观测值的Weibull分布众值偏右,形态相对接近正态分布,而预测值的Weibull分布众值偏左,形态相对偏离正态分布。月尺度上,除1月外,其余各月实况和预测的Weibull分布与全年的基本一致,且各月预测风速形状参数k值接近2,为中性风,说明BJ-RUC模式模拟强阵性风速有局限性;(3)模拟的主导风向与实测的风向有较大偏差,仅对接近满发风速区的风向模拟得较准确,表明BJ-RUC模式对风向模拟有待提高。

Based on the observation data of Dangjinshan wind farm with 49. 5 m W power in Akesai Kazak county of Gansu Province in2013,the low- level wind prediction product of Beijing Rapid Update Cycle( BJ- RUC) with high- resolution system was assessed.The results are as follows:( 1) The forecast effect for the effective wind speed( 3. 5- 11. 5 m·s^(- 1)) was better than the rated wind speed( 11. 5- 25 m·s^(- 1)) in four seasons as a whole,and that was the best in autumn and the worst in winter.( 2) The Weibull distribution of wind speed frequency from the observation in a year was close to the normal distribution,while that from the simulation deviated from the normal distribution. The Weibull distribution of wind speed frequency in other months was similar to annual wind speed frequency except January. The k value from the simulated by BJ- RUC model in each month approximated 2. 0,which indicated that the wind was neutral and simulated gustiness with strong wind speed by BJ- RUC model had limitations.( 3) By comparison of the wind rose diagram,the simulations of dominant wind direction for four different levels wind in 2013 were greatly differ from the observation on the whole,but that for the approximative rated wind speed was accurate,which indicated the simulation of wind direction by BJ- RUC model need to be improved.