“全面二孩政策”背景下全国及各省市学龄人口预测——2016至2025年学前到高中阶段

School Age Population Projections under the Background of Two-child Policy:——Pre-school to High School Stages from 2016 to 2025

学龄人口的变动对各阶段教育规划与资源配置有直接影响。笔者使用第六次人口普查各省分年龄数据,结合"全面二孩政策",对2016-2025年各省学前至高中阶段的学龄人口进行了预测,发现:"全面二孩政策"对学前及义务教育阶段学龄人口会有较大影响,但并不可持续;各省份的学龄人口变动趋势与波动幅度存在较大差异,特别是高中阶段,在教育规划过程中应充分考虑到这一因素。

The fluctuations of school age population have direct impact on the planning of different education stages and the allocation of education resources. Using the data from Sixth National Population Census classified according to ages and provinces, within the context of Two-child Policy, the study forecasted the school age population from pre-school,compulsory education to high school stages at provincial level from 2016 to 2025.Findings are that during the periods of the National 13 th and 14 th Five- Year Plan, Two- child Policy has influenced pre- school and compulsory school- age population at national level, but the influence won＇t last. Further, significant differences could be observed among different provinces in terms of the fluctuation of school age population especially in the stage of high school. The implication is that we should take these factors into account in the process of educational planning.