城镇化视角下的产业结构升级与经济增长

Evolution of Industrial Structure and Economic Growth under the Perspective of Urbanization

文章利用2000—2013年我国31个省级面板数据对城镇化、产业结构与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:城镇化、产业结构与经济增长之间存在稳定的均衡关系;城镇化发展对经济增长具有显著的正向影响;产业结构升级对经济发展影响为正但不显著,并且二者对经济增长的协同效应也并未得到完全发挥。应进一步促进产业结构合理优化升级,提升城镇化建设水平,协调城镇化与产业结构升级同步发展。

This article makes an empirical research on the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure and economic growth based on the 1998--2012 of 31 provincial panel data in China. The result shows that urbanization, industrial structure and economic growth reflect a stable equilibrium relationship, development of urbanization has a significantly positive effect on economic growth, industrial structure upgrading has a positive effect but not significant, and the synergies of them to economic growth are not fully exerted. The policy implication is that we should further promote the optimization of industrial structure reasonably, enhancing the level of urbanization construction, coordinating the development of urbanization and industrial structure.