基于蒙特卡洛模拟的无信号行人过街安全度模型

A Safety Degree Model of Pedestrian No-signal Crossing Walk Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

通过分析无信号控制路段上车辆—行人的交通关系,探讨了行人过街主要方式和行为,提出了运用概率论描述行人过街风险的方法.研究了行人安全过街时间、行人可接受间隙、行人理想等待时间等随机变量的特征,提出了基于对数正态分布的理想等待时间描述方法.构建了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的行人过街安全度模型,可计算行人在理想等待时间内安全过街的概率.最后,通过分组模拟,比较了不同车流量、行人流量、车道数和有无二次过街设施情况下的行人过街安全度,并对安全度变化趋势进行了分析.结果表明,车流量、车道数的影响最大,其次是有无二次过街设施,以上因素可作为行人过街管理的重要依据.

Basing on the analysis of the vehicle- pedestrian relationship on no- signal control road section,this paper illustrates pedestrian cross characters and behavior, and a probabilistic method is present to describe pedestrian risk level. The pedestrian＇s crossing time, accessible gap, desire waiting time are discussed, the desire waiting time distribution is depicted using lognormal distribution. Then, a crossing safety degree model on the base of Monte Carlo is put forward to calculate the pedestrian probability that could safely crossing road with in their desire waiting time. Finally, through data grouping and simulation,the pedestrian safety degree is compared under different road and traffic conditions which related to vehicle volume, pedestrian volume, lanes, two- step crossing, the trend of safety is also analyzed. The result shows that, the main factor for pedestrian crossing safety is vehicle volume, number of lanes, and the two- step crossing. These three factors should be considered when organizing pedestrian crossing facilities.