我国食品微生物定量风险分级模型初探与应用

Preliminary investigation of quantitative food microbial risk ranking model and its applications

目的构建我国食品微生物定量风险分级模型。方法以食品消费量数据为基础,利用专家启发法获得交叉污染和烹调行为相关参数,以2010年我国某省食品中致病菌监测结果为例,通过确定性风险分级模型和风险矩阵,对多种致病菌对人群健康的影响进行分级。结果通过分级模型,发现该省的婴幼儿配方粉中阪崎肠杆菌污染、生畜肉、生禽肉和熟肉制品中的沙门菌污染存在高或较高的健康风险,89.2%的食源性疾病病例由沙门菌引起,87.0%的食源性病例的病因食品可以归因于生畜肉和生禽肉,研究提出了生畜肉-沙门菌组合等应当优先开展风险评估的目录和以交叉污染为重点暴露途径的评估内容。结论初步构建了食品微生物定量风险分级模型,但仍需进一步验证和优化。

Objective To develop the quantitative food microbial risk ranking model in China. Methods Based on the real consumption data,parameters for cross-contamination and cooking habits deriving from an expert elicitation,the food pathogen monitoring results from a province in 2010 was used as an example,a deterministic risk ranking model and matrix were used to prioritize the microbial hazards and food types combination. Results There was high health risk and relative high risks caused by Cronobacter in baby formula and Salmonella in raw meat and poultry. 89. 2% illness was salmonellosis and 87. 0% of the cases were attributed to the raw meat and poultry consumption. It also indicated that combinations like raw meat-Salmonella were the top priority for risk assessments and the cross-contamination should be a key factor. Conclusion A quantitative risk ranking model for food microbial contamination was preliminary developed and further validation was needed.