基于修正离散权的事故应急救援任务终止条件确定及评价

On the emergency rescue mission termination criteria for the in-situ accidents based on the modified discrete weights

应急救援任务繁重、现场复杂,易造成应急救援活动结束条件的模糊,这样不但浪费救援成本,而且不利于事故调查,结合《生产经营单位安全生产事故应急预案编制导则》,研究应急任务结束条件的界定问题。首先按"导则"建立指标体系,之后根据专家的打分矩阵求取各指标信息熵及标准差,建立能综合反映指标分离散度的客观权重模型,然后应用预先危险性分析(PHA)修正客观权重,最后应用层次分析法(AHP)求算主客观综合权重;在此基础上应用模糊综合评价确定各名专家的评价结果,设定得分阈值及人数阈值,只有当达到得分阈值的人数不少于人数阈值时方可确认应急结束。最后经实例证实该方法简洁易行。

The article is entitled to make a study of the emergency rescue mission termination criteria for the in-situ accidents based on the modified discrete weights referring to such accidents. As a matter of fact,emergency rescue tasks involve lots of complicated indefinite factors,in addition to the ambiguous nature of the termination criteria for the rescue mission. However,timely and clear identification of the termination criteria can not only help to save the rescue costs,but also facilitate the corresponding further accident investigations. Based on The Guidelines for Developing Emergency Response Plans for the On-spot in-situ Accidents（ AQ/T 9002—2006）,we would like to study the ways for confirming the termination criteria for the emergency rescue tasks. For the said research purpose,we have built up an index evaluation system,which has illustrated the factors needed to be evaluated,the analysis of the rescue sites,the environmental recovery conditions after the rescue-making,as well as the elimination of the secondary accidents based on the due ‘Guidelines＇. The index system is built up based on the management principle of the accident site,the environmental protection rules,the environmental protection technical standards,in addition to the preliminary hazard analysis. In doing so,we have introduced a score of matrixes given by the experts concerned,and calculated the information entropy and the standard deviation for each index. At the same time,we have also set up an objective weight model to reflect the dispersion for the index scores. And,then,a preliminary hazard analysis has been done to amend the objective weights. Finally,the AHP method is used to calculate the weights between the general guideline and the actual rescue target. For this purpose,we have prepared a model for calculating the comprehensive subjective and objective weights based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation regularities to confirm the evaluation results of the experts,with the score threshold made by the threshold of 7-to-9 experts. It is only when the score threshold is made by a number of the experts for the rescue task that the rescue system can be regarded as being perfect. Thus,the method we have created is thus simple,prompt and convenient in use,and feasible for the rescue sites with different features. What is more,it is easier to identify the termination criteria for different rescue tasks by regulating the threshold values.