经济增长、进出口贸易额、能源消费的动态关系研究——基于碳排放强度分组的省级面板VAR模型的实证分析

The Dynamic Relationship among Economic Growth, Goods Trade and Energy Consumption: Empirical Analysis of Chinese Provincial Panel Based on the Carbon Emission Intensity Grouping by VAR

基于碳排放强度将2010~2014年的我国省级面板数据分为高碳地区和低碳地区两组,分别采用面板VAR模型,通过运用脉冲响应、方差分解、Granger因果检验比较分析两组面板数据中的“经济增长—进出口贸易额—能源消费”之间的动态关系。实证结果显示：（1）经济增长、进出口贸易额、能源消费之间的关系在不同分组中存在显著差异;（2）两组中进出口贸易额对经济增长存在显著的促进作用;（3）低碳地区的经济增速与能源消费强度存在双向因果关系;（4）高碳地区的贸易额增速与能源消费强度存在双向因果关系。这一结果表明两类地区应当积极发展对外贸易以促进经济增长,低碳地区应当节能减排、发展经济以实现二者之间的良性互动,高碳地区则应注重提高贸易在经济发展中的作用、降低能源消费以实现二者的良性互动。

Based on the carbon intensity, this paper uses the Chinese provincial panel data from 2010 to 2014, to divide it into high carbon and low carbon development. By using the panel VAR model, impulse response, variance decomposition and granger causality test, the paper researches the dynamic relationship among economic growth, goods trade and energy consumption. The empirical results show that： （1） there are some significant regional differences among economic growth, goods trade and Energy consumption in two groups; （2） the goods trade growth play a positive role on economic growth; （3） low carbon regional economic growth and energy consumption intensity exists bidirectional causality; （4） in high carbon trade growth and energy consumption intensity, there exists bidirectional causality. The results show that two kinds of areas shall actively develop foreign trade to promote economic growth. The low carbon area should be energy conservation and emissions reduction, economic development, in order to realize the positive interaction between them, the high carbon area should pay attention to improve trade in the role of economic development, reducing energy consumption in order to realize the benign interaction.