半城镇化人群落户中小城镇的意愿及影响机制分析——以成都市近郊为实证

Willingness and influencing mechanism of semi-city people settling in medium and small cities:a case study of Chengdu Suburb

按照国家新型城镇化部署,中小城镇将成为解决我国半城镇化问题的重要空间载体。基于辅以访谈获取的367份成都近郊半城镇化人群的问卷调查资料,探究半城镇化人群落户中小城镇意愿及其影响机制。结果表明:(1)受访者(半城镇化人群)落户成都近郊区中小城镇的意愿整体偏低,仅为34.9%。(2)其落户意愿的主要影响因素包括资产状况和子女教育需求,其中半城镇化人对农村资产的牵挂及其在城镇拥有商品住房的能力不足是其落户意愿的主要制约因素,而子女教育需求则是其落户意愿的重要促进因素。基于这一发现,对于提升半城镇化人群的市民化意愿和能力提出了若干政策建议。

According to the new urbanization plan,medium and small cities will become the important space carrier to solve the problem of Chinese urbanization. Under the system background that medium and small cities have no restrict in settlement policy,the willingness of semi-city people settling in medium and small cities becomes the decisive factor whether medium and small cities can become the carrier of residents. In order to explore willingness and influencing mechanism of semi-city people settling in medium and small cities,this paper takes the demonstration area of urban and rural outskirts—Chengdu suburb,Sichuan Province,China,as an example and firstly selected nineteen factors on four aspects including demographic features,economy,society and family,and asset,as the main measures to investigate the willingness of semi-city people settling in medium and small cities. Secondly,through questionnaire survey and typical sample interview,original data were obtained.Results show that the overall willingness is low,of which about 34.9% of semi-city people are willing to settle in medium and small cities,while 65.1% are not. Thirdly,through the chi square test,this paper verified factors associated with this willingness from a single factor perspective. Study finds that seven factors including education level,income,enrollment of children,urban-resident identity,fields processing,old house treatment and ways of housing are significantly related to the willingness of semi-city people settling in medium and small cities. Finally these seven factors were analyzed with Logistic regression,and results show that under the common action of many factors,field processing,old house treatment,ways of housing and enrollment of children are the four most significant factors,after which this paper had a deep interpretation about these four factors. Overall,influencing factors of semi-city people settling in medium and small cities contain assets factors and needs of their children＇s education,of which care of rural assets and insufficient capacity of commodity housing in medium and small cities are major constraint to the settling intention,while the educational needs of children is an important contributing factor to the settling intention. Based on these findings,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for improving semi-city people＇s willingness and their ability in settling in medium and small cities. Based on the national policy,this study tries to provide theory support for increasing household urbanization rate,and propose suggestions which have certain practical value and times significance.