逐树组合仿真检验建模分析——以河北津龙公司规划效应分析为例

Modeling Analysis of Tree by Tree Combination Simulation——Hebei Jinlong company planning and effect analysis as an example

中国以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享发展为理念,全面制定十三五发展规划,因此采用科学新方法对规划效应进行分析,是当前重要的研究内容.采用新建的逐树设撤关联数组合仿真检验建模法,对河北省津龙公司十二五、十三五发展规划效应进行定量仿真分析.建立了产、供、销、生物质资源转化、生物质能源开发、种养结合特色农产品生产9棵流率基本入树,建立了81个仿真方程,逐树设撤关联数组合仿真检验9棵入树可靠性后,建立系统动力学反馈仿真流图模型,进行规划发展参数调控效应仿真分析,基于仿真结果提出效应高的规划对策.

In China,13th Five-Year plan based on innovation,coordination,green,open,shared development concept,is to be fully made,so the new scientific method applied in the analysis of the planning effect is an important research content at present.In this paper,the newly-built modeling method of incidence number combination simulation that is revocated step by step,and develops the quantitative simulation analysis of Jinlong company in Hebei Province in 12th and 13th Five-Year development planning effect,which establishs production,supply and sale,biomass resources transformation,biomass energy development,Combined with the characteristics of agricultural planting and breeding,which includes nine rate variable fundamental in-trees and 81 simulation equations,establishs system dynamics feedback simulation model of the flow diagram after incidence number combination simulation nine in-trees reliability that is revocated step by step,to plan and develop simulation analysis of parameters controlling effect,and put forward planning countermeasures of high effect based on simulation result.