情景分析法预测西安市大气污染物排放总量

SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO PREDICT THE TOTAL EMISSIONS OF AIR POLLUTANTS IN XI'AN

情景分析法是通过对经济、技术的重大演变提出各种关键假设,对可能的未来情景加以描述,并分析情景对目标产生影响的预测方法。文章以西安市为例,运用情景分析法分析了2020年3种不同情景下的大气污染物排放量。结果显示:3种情景下SO2、NOx的排放量依次减小,情景二和情景三模式下的SO2排放量均低于基准年,但3种情景下的NOx排放量均高于基准年。

Scenario analysis is a forecasting method,which usually puts forward various key assumptions on major evolution of the economy,technology,give description on possible scenarios in the future,and evaluate the impact of the scenario on the target. Taking Xi＇an as the example,the scenario analysis method is used to analyze emissions of air pollutants in 2020 in three different scenarios. The results show that under the three scenarios,emissions of SO2,NOxgradually decrease; SO2 emissions under the mode of scenario II and scenario III are lower than the base year; while NOxemissions are higher than the base year in all the three scenarios.