1409号和1415号台风风暴潮预报的数值研究

Numerical simulation study on typhoon“Rammasun”(1409) and typhoon“Kalmaegi”(1415) storm surge forecast

分析了1409"威马逊"和1415"海鸥"台风特点及风暴潮、潮位情况。给定较准确的台风特征参数并利用ADCIRC模式对两次台风风暴潮进行数值模拟,各站模拟与实测吻合良好,选取海南岛北部铺前湾作为重点岸段,利用秀英站的风暴潮模拟及北港岛灾后调查推断铺前湾口(P1)、湾顶(P2)输出点的风暴潮模拟值可信度高。对于环流范围较小的超强台风1409"威马逊",P1和P2的模拟最大增水明显高于秀英站,而P2又明显高于P1;对于环流范围较大的台风1415"海鸥",P1、P2的模拟最大增水与秀英站无显著差别。因此,台风特征的预报判断将是风暴潮预报的重要因素。

In this paper, typhoon feature and storm surge caused by 1409“Rammasun”and 1415“Kalmaegi”is analyzed respectively, and the two storm surge processes are simulated based on the ADCIRC-2D model with correct typhoon parameters and the model result has a good agreement with measured data. Puqianwan located at the northern of Hainan Province is chosen as a key coast, and the two output points from model result which are located at bay mouth （P1） and showed at bay top （P2） is inferred high reliability based on storm surge modeling at Xiuying station and the disaster investigation at Beigang Island. For 1409 super typhoon“Rammasun”with small circulation, the peak storm surge modeling at Puqianwan is significantly greater than Xiuying station, while the modeled result at P2 is significantly greater than that at P1; for 1415 typhoon“Kalmaegi”, the peak storm surge modeling at P1 and P2 shows no significant difference from Xiuying station. Therefore, the typhoon feature will be an important factor in storm surge forecasting.