基于CMS模型的中国对加拿大农产品出口贸易影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting China's Agricultural Products Export to Canada Based on CMS Model

运用CMS模型,对2000~2014年中国农产品对加拿大出口贸易的影响因素进行了量化分析。结果表明：自2000年以来,结构效应的贡献逐渐增大,并从2005年开始成为促进中国向加拿大出口农产品的主导因素,加拿大农产品市场需求的增加有助于中国农产品的出口贸易。中国出口农产品的结构不合理和竞争力不足制约了中国对加拿大农产品贸易增长。基于此,提出优化出口产品结构、提升产品竞争力、强化交流合作、建立共赢机制等对策建议。

By using Constant Market Share（ CMS） model,this paper quantitatively analyzed the factors affecting China’s agricultural products export to Canada during 2000 ~ 2014. The results showed that： since the year 2000,the contribution of structural effect gradually increased,and it became the major factor promoting China’s agricultural products export to Canada from the beginning of 2005. The increase in agricultural product demand by Canada market contributed to the export trade of China’s agricultural products. The author considered that the unreasonable structure and low competitiveness of China’s exported agricultural products restricted the growth of China’s agricultural product trade to Canada. Based on these,this article presented the corresponding countermeasures and recommendations,which are to optimize the structure of exported agricultural products,improve the competitiveness of exported agricultural products,strengthen exchange and cooperation,and establish a win-win mechanism.