浙江房地产市场周期滤波分析

An Analysis of Real Estate Market Cycle in Zhejiang Province by Filtering Method

基于浙江省1990-2013年的统计数据,以全国房地产市场周期和浙江宏观经济周期为参照系,采用HP、BK和CF等3种滤波方法研究浙江省房地产市场周期波动规律。研究结果显示,近24年浙江省房地产市场波动经历了3个典型周期,尽管其周期长度与全国房地产市场周期、浙江宏观经济周期一样都属于朱格拉周期,但又呈现出不同于后两者的具有"浙江特色"的区域房地产市场波动特征。研究还发现,房地产业并非国民经济的先导产业或"火车头行业"。

Based on the data from 1990 to 2013, this paper studies the periodic fluctuation of real estate market in Zhejiang province by HP, BK and CF filtering method taking the national real estate market cycle and the Zhejiang macro economic cycle as the reference system. The study shows that the fluctuation of real estate market in Zhejiang province has experienced 3 typical periods in recent 24 years. Although it belongs to Juglar cycle as the national real estate market cycle and Zhejiang macroeconomic cycle in terms of cycle length, Zhejiang province;real estate market cycle presents Zhejiang characteristics of the regional real estate market volatility. The study also shows that the real estate industry is not the leading industry or ＂the locomotive industry＂ of the national economy.