利率水平、住房价格与国民经济的动态变化

The Dynamic Relationship of Interest Rates,Price of Real Estate and Economic Growth

利用我国31个省、市、自治区的数据,通过构建Panel-VAR模型,分东中西部三个地区实证了利率水平、住房价格与国民经济的动态关系。结果表明:在不同地区,利率水平、住房价格对国民经济影响都存在显著差异,但是它们都不是影响国民经济最为主要的因素,国民经济的发展更多的是受到来自自身惯性的支配。另外,由于住房价格主要受到国家宏观政策的调控,因此人均GDP对它的作用十分微弱。根据研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议,认为利率政策应该更多的考虑东部地区的需要,而国家需要对住房价格进行更多的控制使其平稳增长,土地政策和户籍制度的改革力度也需要加强。

In this paper, we use panel-YhR model testing the dynamic relationship of interest rates, price of real estate and economic growth of east, middle and west regions with the 31 province data The result is that, the effect of interest rates and price of real estate to the economic growth is different in the three regions, while the dominated factor that affect the national economy is the development of itself, not either of interest rates and the price of real estate. Besides, as the price of real estate is mainly influenced by the macro policy, the influence of per capita GDP to it is very weak. According to our findings, we have also put forward the corresponding policy recommendations that the interest rate policy should consider the needs of eastern regions more, and the government needs to control price of real estate and makes it growing stably. The reform of the household registration system and land policy also should be strengthened.