电子商务发展对商业地产的影响——来自中国的观察与实证研究

The Influence from the Development E-commerce on the Commercial Property :Evidence from China

结合电子商务及传统零售业特点,通过理论推导提出相关假设,随后搜集相关数据并进行实证检验,发现电子商务销售额与实体零售物业销售额互为格兰杰因果关系。方差分解及脉冲响应函数分析结果表明,电子商务的确是影响实体零售业的重要因素并对其有负向冲击。但是,不同业态零售物业受电子商务的影响却各不相同,其中具有更高购物体验、更低多样性及便捷性缺失、更高质量保证以致电子商务质量风险更高以及交通成本差更低的业态类型受电子商务的影响相对较低,不具备上述优势的业态类型受电子商务的影响则相对较高。最后为传统商业地产提供相关建议。

This paper based on the characteristic of e-commerce and the commercial property, puts forward hypothesis after theoretical analysis, and then have empirical analysis with related data We find that both e-commerce and the commercial are the granger cause of each other. The impulse response and variance decomposition show that the development of e-commerce has negative effects on the traditional commercial property. However, the influences are different among different types of commercial property. The impact is less if the commercial property has more diversified goods, more convenient ways, better guarantee of quality, and lower traffic cost. Finally, according to our analysis, we provide some suggestion on the development of commercial property.