我国城镇住房拆除率及其影响因素研究

Study of China's Urban Housing Demolition Rate and Its Influencing Factor

随着我国住房产业化和新型城镇化的推进,城市更新速率大幅提高,在这个过程中,大量住房被拆除,有些住房远未达到预期寿命。大拆大建的城市更新模式已被社会广泛关注。为把握我国城镇住房拆除情况及其变化规律,根据2001-2013年全国及各省的各年住房减少面积和年末住房实有建筑面积计算城镇住房拆除率,并对拆除率进行统计描述和实证分析,利用固定效应模型和混合回归模型分析拆除率的影响因素。结果表明,拆除率受经济因素影响显著,不同经济发展水平的地区拆除率呈现不同的变化趋势,且住房投资额和房价均对拆除率有显著影响,此外,各地拆除率因气候、降雨量不同也存在差异。

As China＇s housing industrialization and new urbanization propelled,urban renewal rate is increasing rapidly.In this process,a large number of houses were demolished,some of which are far from life expectancy.Great mass of demolition and construction has gotextensive attention.To grasp the circumstances and variation rules of urban housing demolition,this paper calculates urban housing demolition rate of both country and provinces usinghousing reducing area in each year and housing stock area at every end of year from 2001 to 2013,and makes statistical descriptions and empirical analysis using a fixed effects model and a mixed regression model,in order to analyze the factors that influence the demolition rate.The results show that demolition rate is affected by economic factors significantly.Areas of different economic development levels present different changing ways of demolition rate.Housing investments and housing prices have significant impact on demolition rate.In addition,different regions＇ demolition rates vary due to climate and rainfall.