房地产开发信贷规模与住宅价格的相关性研究——来自天津地区的经验证据

Is There a Significant Correlation Between the Credit Scale of the Real Estate Development and the Housing Price——empirical evidence from Tianjin

随着经济的发展,房地产业作为我国国民经济中的支柱产业发挥着越来越重要的作用。居住型物业是房地产市场的重要组成部分,其价格的波动既关系民生,也关乎金融体系的稳定。选取天津地区2000年至2013年的时间序列数据,通过平稳性检验和协整检验,进而建立误差修正模型,并进行脉冲响应分析,用以探究房地产开发信贷规模与居住型物业价格波动之间的关系。研究结果显示,房地产开发信贷规模与居住型物业价格之间具有显著性相关关系。针对实证检验的结果,就优化我国房地产市场宏观调控效果提出了建议。

With the economic development, the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy is playing an increasingly important role. Residential property is an important part of the real estate market, its price fluctuations is not only related to people＇ s livelihood, but also related to the stability of the financial system. Select the time-series data in Tianjin from 2000 to 2013 by stationary test and cointegration test, and establish the error correction model and impulse response analysis, to explore the relationship between the credit scale of real estate development and the price volatility of residential property. Research results show that the credit scale of real estate development and the prices of residential property have significant correlation In view of the results of empirical test, this study puts forward suggestions on optimizing the macro control effect of the real estate market in China