制造业劳动生产率变动、能源资本及消费结构调整能否提升国际竞争力?

Have the Labor Productivity Changes and Energy Resources and Consumption Structure Evolution Promoted the Manufacturing Industry's International Competitiveness?

以影响制造业国际竞争力因素为视角,对制造业劳动生产率、能源资本和能源消费结构的历史变动情况进行时序分析,选用显性对比优度指数辨析制造业国际竞争力的提升态势。在此基础上,构建VAR模型检验1997-2012年期间制造业劳动生产率、能源资本、煤炭消费和电力消费与国际竞争力之间的协整性,并采用广义脉冲响应、预测方差分解法对各变量之间的动态均衡关系进行实证分析。结果表明,逐步提高以电力为代表的清洁能源比例可有助于制造业国际竞争力的提升,但目前清洁能源对高排放能源的替代效率依然过低;能源价格的波动影响了制造业国际竞争力过程中的稳定性;而劳动生产率过低是抑制其国际竞争力提升的重要瓶颈。

The influence factor of international competitiveness of manufacturing was chosen as the research angle of view,and the changes of labor productivity,energy resources and consumption structure evolution were analyzed in time order,and the development of manufacturing industry international competitiveness situation was studied by the dominant comparative index. Furthermore,the co-integration relationships between the international competitiveness and labor productivity,energy,capital,coal consumption and power consumption were analyzed by the VAR model from 1997 to 2012 and the dynamic equilibrium relationships between the variables were also carried out empirical research by the generalized impulse response and variance decomposition method. Results show that the manufacturing industry international competitiveness can be promoted if the proportion of clean energy that represented by the power was to be improved,but the current efficiency that high discharge energy to be replaced by clean energy was low,and the stability of the process of manufacturing industry international competitiveness to be improved was affected by fluctuations in the price of the energy. Moreover,the low productivity of labor was an important bottleneck of manufacturing industry international competitiveness to be promoted.