水库大坝突发事件及其预测特性分析

Analysis on prediction characteristic of reservoir dam emergent events

水库大坝突发事件不仅关系大坝自身安全,而且对下游地区生命、财产和社会安全会构成巨大威胁,开展水库大坝突发事件及其预测特性分析,有助于更好地建立预警模型。结合水库大坝自身特点,提出了水库大坝突发事件的定义,归纳总结了五种典型突发事件,即溃坝、地震、洪水、工程结构失稳和供水危机;通过分析,对五种水库大坝突发事件的预测特性进行了研究。结果表明,洪水、结构失稳、水污染导致的供水危机等突发事件是可预测的,溃坝与地震是不易预测的。

The emergent events of reservoir dam not only relate to the safety of dam itself, but also have a great impact on the life, property and social security of the downstream people. It is helpful to build up an early warning model with the analysis on the prediction characteristics of reservoir dam emergent events.Combined with the characteristics of reservoir dam, the definition of reservoir dam emergencies is introduced,and five typical reservoir dam emergencies are summed up, including dam break, earthquake, flood, engineering structural instability and water crisis. Through case collection and statistics, the prediction characteristics of the five reservoir dam emergent events were studied. The result of analysis shows that flood, structural instability and water crisis caused by water pollution emergencies are predictable, but dam break and earthquake are difficult to forecast.