平均工资与通货膨胀非线性关系的实证研究——基于LSTAR模型的分析

Empirical Analysis on the Nonlinear Relation between Average Wage and Inflation——Based on the LSTAR Model

针对工资物价之间的非线性动态关系及对两者关系认识的分歧,运用格兰杰因果检验和平滑转移自回归模型研究1991~2012年平均名义工资与通货膨胀之间的相互关系,实证结果表明：在样本期内通货膨胀是推动名义工资上涨的主要因素,而工资上涨推动物价上涨的机制不具有统计上的显著性;1991~1998年名义工资与通货膨胀呈现负向线性关系,1999~2012年两者关系由线性关系向非线性关系平滑转移,且名义工资增长更多受到自身惯性的影响。最后从防范工资推动型通胀出现的角度提出了大力推进技术进步,推进市场化改革,降低通货膨胀预期及其持续性,避免总量工资过快调整等政策建议。

Focusing on the nonlinearity relation and the different recognition between price and inflation,the paper uses the granger causality test and LSTAR model to analyze the interaction between average wage data and inflation data during the period of 1991-2012 in China.The empirical studies show that during the sample period inflation is the main factors to causing the increase of nominal wage while the mechanism of wage increase promoting the price rise does not have statistical significance.And during the period of 1991-1998,there is a negative linear relation between inflation and average wage is negative linearity,while during the period of 1999-2012 this relation have changed into nonlinearity and the wage is affected mostly by its own inertia.In the end the paper makes some suggestions on how to avoid the wage push inflation,such as promoting technological progress,promoting the market oriented reform,reducing inflation expectations and its sustainability,avoiding the quickly adjustment of the gross wage.