上海政府支出对居民消费的影响效应——基于OLS模型与Granger因的实证研究

Shanghai Government Expenditure's Effects on Its Resident Consumption:Empirical Research by OLS Model and Granger-Cause Test

根据经典经济学理论,政府支出存在着挤出效应和挤入效应。当前,在供给侧改革背景下,能否通过加大政府支出促进居民消费,仍然存在着争议。本文在对政府支出与居民消费的理论关系分析的基础上,构建OLS模型,利用Granger因果检验方法,并以上海市数据为例进行实证分析,结果表明:人均实际政府支出量增加是引起人均实际居民消费量变化的Granger因;而且,人均实际政府支出对人均实际居民消费有着"挤入效应"。进而在研究基础上,为相关政府决策提出一些启示。

According to the classical theories of economics, the government expenditure has crowding-out effects and crowding-in effects. Currently, under the background of the structural reform of supply-side in China, whether by increasing government spending to promote consuming, is still controversial. After analyzing the theoretical relationship between government expenditure and resident consumption, this paper constructs OLS model, applies Granger-cause method, and takes Shanghai＇s case as an example of empirical analysis. And it shows that real per government expenditure is Granger-cause of resident consumption and that the former has crowding-in effects on the latter. And then, on the basis of the study, some implications for related government decisions are put forward.