自选择、职业发展与农民工同乡聚集的收入效应研究

Research on the Earning Effect of Migrant Workers' Self-Selection,Career Development and Enclave Participation

本文基于2010年珠三角和长三角外来务工者调查的数据,利用内生转换回归模型克服自选择导致的估计偏误,分析不同类型的同乡聚集对农民工收入的影响。研究发现:(1)同乡聚集对农民工收入有着显著的正向影响;(2)在选择效应上呈现双向强化特征,即无论是聚集者还是非聚集者均选择了增进自身利益的工作类型;(3)基于初职与现职阶段的比较分析发现,不同聚集类型在农民工职业发展不同阶段的收入效应呈现不同的趋势。

Based on the data from a 2010 survey on migrant workers in the Pearl RiverDelta and the Yangtze River Delta,this paper analyzes the effects of different types of enclave participation on earnings of migrant workers and examines the 'enclave thesis'by using the endogenous switching regression model to overcome self-selection bias. This paper draws the following conclusions. Firstly,enclave participation in general has a significant positive influence on migrant workers' earning. Secondly,from the perspective of self-selection effect,it presents a character of bi-strengthening which means that both the enclave participators and non-enclave participators choose the type of jobs that they think will benefit more. To the non-enclave participators,changing their present situation to participating in enclave will not bring them a positive selection effect but works against their income prospects. Thirdly,by comparing the phases of the first job and present job,this paper finds that different types of enclave would have different earning effect according to different phases of occupational development.