行为决策中承诺升级的作用机制

The Mechanism of Escalation in Behavioral Decision

承诺升级是指面对负反馈信息时,人们仍然坚持之前的错误行为。除了主观期望效用理论、自我辩解理论、前景理论和心理账户理论等早期理论外,最新又提出了查询理论和基于叙述的决策理论,值得注意的是,同影响因素一样,它们都是从评估和目标(动力)两个角度对行为产生影响。未来研究应注意理论、方法多元化发展,从评估和目标角度入手研究承诺升级的干预机制,也应重视制度因素对承诺升级的影响等。

Escalation of commitment（ or escalation） refers to a phenomenon in which decision makers have a great tendency to persist in with failing courses of action,even when confronted with continual negative feedbacks. Theories like subjective expected utility theory,self- justification theory,prospect theory and mental account theory,have long been used to explain this phenomenon,recently,two new theories are also proposed,namely,query theory and narrative- based decision theory. It＇s worth noting that,all these theories and factors believe that escalation of commitment＇s influence on behavior is through two accesses： evaluation and goal（ motivation）. In the future,researchers are expected to deepen analysis on the diversity of theory and method,de- escalation methods on the basis of evaluation and goal,as well as paying attention to the organizational factors.