基于多目标蒙特卡洛法的全电压序列一体化电网可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Whole Voltage Level Integrated Power Grid Based on Multi-Objective Monte-Carlo Method

在传统可靠性评估中对输电网和配电网的可靠性评估一般假设另一系统完全可靠,评估结果会较为乐观。全电压序列一体化电网的可靠性评估通过拼接输配电网的模型,同时考虑输配电系统的故障情况,能更加真实地反映系统的可靠性。对输配电系统同时进行抽样使抽样系统的规模和复杂性有所增加。针对全电压序列一体化电网的以上特点,文章提出了多目标蒙特卡洛抽样方法,以各个指标因偏离最优分配引起的方差增量的均值最小为目的,优化分配每一层的抽样数目,同时避免对系统无故障状态的抽样,以达到兼顾抽样效率和计算精度的目的。最后结合IEEE-RTS 79测试系统和RBTS BUS 6测试系统进行了考虑配电网内部元件状态影响的输电网可靠性计算,算例分析表明所提算法合理有效。

In traditional reliability evaluation, transmission system and distribution system are evaluated on assumption that the other system is in contingency-free state, therefore leading to a more optimistic result. Reliability evaluation of whole voltage level integrated power grid takes into account that there are faults simultaneously in transmission and distribution system by using combined model of the two systems, bringing a more realistic reflection of system reliability. Sampling transmission and distribution system simultaneously increases scale and complexity of sampling system. According to above characteristics of whole voltage level integrated power grid, this paper proposes a multi-objective Monte-Carlo sampling method, aiming at minimizing variance increment caused by index deviation from optimal allocation, optimizing sampling number in every layer, and avoiding sampling on contingency-free state, to improve sampling efficiency and computational accuracy. Transmission system reliability evaluation test on IEEE-RTS79 and RBTS BUS 6 system, considering internal problems of distribution system, indicates that the method is reasonable and effective.