有关当前经济下行成因的综合分析

Comprehensive Analysis of Reasons For Current Economic Downturn

当前中国经济增速不断下滑已经成为不争的事实,然而对于经济下行的原因却众说纷纭。显然,任何单一因素都无法对当前中国经济下行的原因进行完整地解释,因此本文采用费雪的分析框架,从趋势性、周期性和短期因素三个方面对当前经济下行的原因进行综合分析,并试图对这些因素的影响权重进行量化分析,以期对当前中国经济下行的原因做出比较全面地解释并找出相应的对策。从结果来看,出口减少是2008年和2009年经济下行的主因,政府消费和投资的减少对2010—2012年间经济下行影响较大,而周期性因素和趋势性因素始终是经济下行的重要原因。应对经济下行,一方面,各级政府不再追求过高的增长速度是正确的选择,但是另一方面应当清楚地看到,如果经济下行过快也有可能引爆各种早已形成的潜在风险。作为对策,当务之急是必须处理好"输血""、打麻药"和"动手术""止血"之间的关系。通过加快改革,及时化解风险,并促使中国经济早日止跌回升。

It is an indisputable fact that Chinese economic growth rate keeps decreasing recently. There are divergent views on reasons for economic downturn. Obviously, any single factor can not explains the reasons for economic downturn in China perfectly. This paper applies Fisher＇s analytical framework to comprehensively analyze reasons behind economic downturn in China. Those analysis are made mainly from three aspects, including trending factors, cyclical factors and short-term factors. This paper tries to quantitatively analyze the right of these three factors, the main objective is to explain reasons for economic downturn in China clearly and identify appropriate countermeasures. Results show that export decreasing is the main reason that causes economic downturn in 2008 and 2009, and that decreasing of government consumption and investment has a large impact on economic downturn in 2010---2012. Furthermore, cyclical factors and short-term factors have always been main reasons for economic downturn in China. To solve economic downturn problem, on the one hand, governments at all level should not pursue excessive economic growth rate any longer. On the other hand, it should be noticed that excessive economic downturn may detonate many potential risks that already exist. As a consequence, top priority at hand is to deal with the relationship between ＂blood transfusion＂, ＂anesthetics＂ and ＂having an operation＂,＂hemostasis＂. We should accelerate the reform process, promptly resolve risks and promote economic recovery in China.