城市轨道交通运营初期客流预测方法研究

Initial Passenger Flow Forecast Method of Rail Transit

为了使预测客流与实际客流更吻合,提出了基于三次吸引的四阶段客流预测法.该方法是以三次吸引范围为基础,分别建立模型对出行发生吸引、出行分布和交通方式划分这三个阶段进行预测,获得城市轨道交通运营初期的客流量.并以大连市202轨道交通延伸线为实例,验证了预测方法的合理性和实用性.

Scientific and accurate rail passenger flow forecasting in the initial operation is important to develop reasonable vehicle configuration plan and Operation organization scheme. In order to improve the operation accuracy of the prediction, the forecasting method is studied, and the four stage method is proposed based on three-time attraction to obtain models for travel and attraction, trip distribution, transportation division to get the initial passenger flow. The example of Dalian 202 rail transit proves illustrated the rationality and practicability of the forecast method.