中国对“丝绸之路经济带”国家工程承包的区位因素分析——基于引力模型的经验考察

Analysis on Location Factors of Engineering Contracts in "New Silk Road Economic Belt" Countries——An Empirical Analysis of Gravity Model

基础设施的互联互通是推进＂丝绸之路经济带＂建设的前提,国际工程承包又将成为＂一带一路＂背景下的投资热点。通过构建国际工程承包引力模型,利用1998~2013年沿＂丝绸之路经济带＂23个选取国的面板数据,基于引力模型加入了中国入世、城镇化指标、实际利率及研发人员规模等变量,对中国对沿带工程承包业务发展的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果显示：贸易协定和城镇化规模及水平是影响中国对外承包商进入沿带国家市场的重要因素,根据实证结果,最终结合影响因素以及不同区位的市场特点,为中国对外工程承包提供区位战略建议。

The international engineering contract will be a new investment highlight in ＂One Belt and One Road＂ based on the propulsion of the interconnection of infrastructures to the ＂New Silk Road Economic Belt＂. This paper has constructed an international engineering contracting gravity model and select the panel data from 1998 to 2013 of 23 selected countries along the ＂New Silk Road Economic Belt＂. Based on the model, it verified the influence of China＇s entry into WTO, urbanization index, real interest rate and R D personnel. The empirical results show that the trade agreement and the level of urbanization are the important factors which influence the Chinese foreign contractors to enter along with the national market. According to combination of factors in the empirical results and the characteristics of different locations, this paper provides location strategies to Chinese foreign engineering contract industry.