2016年上半年小麦市场形势分析及后期展望

Wheat Market in the First Half of 2016 and Its Prospect

2015/16年度全球小麦产量达到创纪录水平,国际小麦价格持续下跌,而2016年3月以后国内小麦市场出现阶段性供给偏紧,普通小麦价格上涨趋势明显,5月之后,随着新麦逐渐上市,普通小麦价格止涨趋稳。展望后市.2016/17年度全球小麦供需仍较为宽松,国际小麦价格将弱势震荡;新麦上市后开秤价格普遍偏低,安徽、湖北、江苏、河南相继启动托市收购,但是由于南方部分地区收获时节遭遇不利天气,预计新麦价格受品质影响分化将较为明显。

The price of international wheat continued going down as global wheat production reached a new high in 2015/16. While the price of common wheat have raised significantly with tight supply in domestic wheat market since March of 2016, after May, went stably with new wheat coming into the market. Looking ahead, the supply and demand of global wheat will be still relatively loose, and the price of international wheat will fluctuate at a low level. Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu and Henan started prop acquisition when the price was low after new wheat coming into market, it was expected that new wheat price would clearly differentiate by the quality because parts of southern area suffered adverse weather during the harvest season.