河北省农村文化消费支出变动分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction for Rural Cultural Consumption Spending Changes in Hebei Province

根据2002年~2013年的统计数据,文章对河北省农村文化消费支出的变动情况进行了灰色关联分析,并应用灰色预测模型、三次多项式预测模型组合建立的整合模型对河北省未来的文化消费支出发展情况进行了预测。研究结果表明：人均纯收入以及固定资产投资对农村文化消费支出影响程度较大,同时,整合模型的预测结果精度较高,误差率较低,在稳定性方面较为理想。预测结果表明未来农村文化消费支出还将呈现稳步增长的发展态势,基于此应加强政府引导作用、实施文化产业建设“走出去”战略,从而拉动河北省农村居民文化消费支出。

The research object is about rural cultural consumption spending problem in Hebei Province. This article investigates the changes of Hebei rural cultural consumption spending, performs grey correlation analysis based on statistical figures from 2002 to 2013, and forecasts future cultural consumption spending developments with the help of integration model, which is built upon both grey prediction model and cubic polynomial prediction model. Study results show that rural cultural consumption degree is influenced more by per capita net income and fixed-asset investment. In the meantime, integration model has been proved of greater accuracy, lower error rate and higher stability. The results also present a steady-state growth of future rural cultural consumption spending. According to these results, the article puts forward suggestions of how to stimulate Hebei Province rural cultural consumption spending in the future.