基于多元回归模型的公路客运量预测分析

Prediction of Traffic Volume based on Multiple Regression Model

基于多元线性回归理论选取我国1993—2012年间的公路客运量等数据,分析国内生产总值和人口总数对公路客运量的影响程度,并对我国公路客运量进行中短期预测。结果表明:国内生产总值和人口总数对公路客运量有显著的正相关关系,且多元回归模型的预测精度很高,适合进行公路客运量的中短期预测。

Based on the theory of multivariate linear regression, this paper selected highway passenger traffic volume data of 1993-2012 and analysed the influence of GDP and population to highway passenger traffic volume, and forecasted the highway passenger transportation volume of china in the short-term. The results show that the GDP and population have a positive relationship to the highway passenger volume, and the forecast accuracy of the multiple regression models is very high and is suitable for short-term prediction for highway passenger traffic volume.