黑龙江省不同饲养规模的生猪生产效率研究

Study on hog production efficiencies of different feeding scales in Heilongjiang province

为了解黑龙江省生猪生产效率现状及发展趋势,试验采用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算与分析了2004—2014年黑龙江省和全国不同规模的生猪全要素生产率及其分解项,通过时间序列预测法对黑龙江省2015—2018年的投入产出值进行估计,并对4种模式的估计结果进行技术效率和规模效率的比较,给出要素的最优调整量。结果表明:黑龙江省生猪全要素生产率(TFP)的增长率均值不为正,且落后于全国平均水平,但2014年规模化养殖效率有突破性发展;TFP的时序变动较全国平均更平稳,生猪养殖规模越大波动越激烈;散户和大规模养殖技术效率高且接近最优规模,其中散户优势明显;中规模具有发展潜力。

To understand the present situation and developing trend of hog production efficiency in Heilongjiang province, the data envelopment analysis （DEA） -Malmquist index method was used to measure and analyze the total factor productivity （TFP） and its decomposition items of hogs of different feeding scales in Heilongjiang province and the whole country from 2004 to 2014. Furthermore, the valtles of input and output of hog production in Heilongjiang province from 2015 to 2018 were estimated by using time - series forecasting method, and the estimated results of four patterns were used for the comparison between technical efficiency and scale efficiency to give the optimal adjustment amount of the elements. The results showed that the mean value of the growth rate of TFP in Heilongjiang province was not positive and laged behind the na- tional average, but there was a breakthrough development in the efficiency of large - scale pig farming in 2014, The temporal variation of TFP in Heilongjiang was more stable than the national average, and the larger the pig - breeding scale was, the more intensive the TFP fluctuated. The backyard farmers and large - scale pig farms had high technical efficiency and nearly approached the optimal scale, thereinto, the baekyard farmers had obvious advantages, and the medium- scale pig farms had development potential.