营改增后中央地方分成方案及其影响分析

An Analysis on the Share Scheme between the Central and Local Governments after “Replacing Business Tax with VAT” and Its Effects

《国务院关于印发全面推开营改增试点后调整中央与地方增值税收入划分过渡方案的通知》提出了增值税在中央政府与地方政府之间"五五分成"的改革方案。本文试图对新方案可能产生的影响进行分析。研究发现,在新方案下,各省实际分成比例与增值税收入增长率呈负相关,与2014年税收返还比例呈正相关。在此基础上,本文模拟了既定增值税收入增长率条件下地方政府的实际分成比例,并讨论了新方案对促进地方财力均等化方面的影响。最后,通过分析新税制下的税收激励机制,发现地方政府存在鼓励第二产业发展的动机,进而预测新方案的实施将引发地方政府新一轮投资扩张,加剧产能过剩的现状。

The notice on the transitional scheme of adjusting VAT income share between the central and local governments after the extensive implementation of ＂replacing business tax with VAT＂ by the State Council presents a reform scheme that requires the VAT income should be allocated equally by 50-50. This paper analyzes the potential influence of the new scheme. The paper finds that, under the new scheme, each province＇s real sharing ratio has a negative relation with the VAT income growth rate and has a positive relation with the tax return ratio. On this basis, the paper simulates local government＇s real sharing ration according to a given VAT income growth rate, and discusses the new scheme＇s influence to local governments＇ financial equality. Finally, with the analysis of the tax income incentive under the current taxation system, the paper finds the local governments have the motivation to encourage the development of the second industry. The paper predicts that the new share scheme will induce a new round of investment expansion, which may exacerbate the status of excess production capacity.