中俄农产品贸易及其比较优势、互补性演变趋势

Trade Tendency,Comparative Advantage and Complementary of Agricultural Products between China and Russia

基于1992—2014年中俄农产品贸易数据,描述分析了中俄农产品整体贸易变化和贸易结构变化特征,给出了中俄农产品宏观贸易发展趋势。利用显性比较优势指数(RCA)和标准显性比较优势指数(NRCA),贸易互补性指数(TCI)和产品互补指数(CI)分析了中俄农产品贸易比较优势和贸易互补性的变化特征。结果显示:中国农产品整体比较优势在下降,俄罗斯农产品整体比较优势在上升,并已超出中国;中国的水产品、园艺产品、烟草及饮料,俄罗斯的水产品在对方市场具有比较优势;中国对俄罗斯农产品贸易互补性在增加,水产品、园艺产品、动物产品互补性明显;俄罗斯对中国农产品贸易互补性高于中国对俄罗斯,大宗农产品、水产品互补性明显。

Based on agricultural products trade between China and Russia and data from years 1992 to 2013 , this paper describes the trends and characteristics of trade structure change, giving the macro situation of agricultural products trade between China and Russia. Using RCA index, NRCA index, TCI index and Cl index, we analyzed the comparative advantage and complementary on Sino-Russia trade in agricultural products. The results show that comparative advantage of China agricultural products are falling, agricultural products comparative advantage of Russia are rising and higher than China; aquatic products, horticultural products, tobacco and beverages products in China and aquatic products in Russia have comparative advantage in each others markets; China＇s agricultural products trade complementarities to Russia is on the rise, aquatic products, horticultural products, animal products complementarity is obvious; Russia to China＇s agricultural products trade is more complementarity than China to Russia, agricultural commodities, aquatic products complementarity is obvious.