基于种养平衡的杭州市畜禽养殖环境承载力研究

Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity for Livestock and Poultry Breeding Based on Planting-breeding Balance in Hangzhou City

种养结合循环利用是生态化、资源化解决畜禽规模养殖粪污排放问题的根本途径。论文以土壤有效氮、磷含量预测土壤供肥能力,结合种植和养殖业年度统计数据,利用修正的养分平衡法估算杭州市畜禽养殖环境承载力,并分析杭州市各县市畜禽养殖污染风险。结果表明:2014年杭州市畜禽养殖环境承载力以氮、磷计分别为18.20和18.29头猪当量/hm^2,实际承载量分别为13.26和12.70头猪当量/hm^2,污染风险指数分别为0.73和0.69,说明杭州市整体处于畜禽养殖低污染风险状态,但各县市的污染负荷差异显著,市区等4个县市属于过量承载,存在较高的污染风险,富阳等4个县市仍有一定的承载潜力。研究结果可为杭州市种养业平衡整体规模配置、布局调整和粪污消纳等决策提供科学依据。

Taking available nitrogen and phosphorus in soil, and annual statistical data of planting and breeding as data sources, and using modified nutrient- balance method, the environmental carrying capacity and pollution risk of livestock and poultry breeding in Hangzhou City was explored. Firstly, it is found that the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus consumption of main crops in Hangzhou were 39 886.4 and 21 874.1 t in 2014. Vegetable, rice,fruit and beans consumed 11 879.7, 8 588.2, 5 255.0 and 4 641.6 t of nitrogen, respectively.Meanwhile, vegetable, rice and fruit also consumed 10 394.8, 4 480.8 and 2 189.6 t of phosphorus, respectively. Secondly, the strongest counties of soil nitrogen and phosphorus supply were Lin an（86.6 kg/hm^2 for nitrogen） and the downtown area（60.6 kg/hm^2 for phosphorus）, while the weakest one was Tonglu County（77.0 kg/hm^2 for nitrogen and 59.2 kg/hm^2 for phosphorus）. Thirdly, during 2014, the environmental carrying capacities of districts in Hangzhou ranged from 1.48 to 35.59 heads/hm^2, and 1.01 to 39.79 heads/hm^2 when calculated on the basis of nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. According to the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding, all the counties of Hangzhou City could be divided into three levels. Fuyang was on the highest level with carrying capacity of 35.59（based on nitrogen） and 39.79 head/hm^2（based on phosphorus）. Yuhang, Xiaoshan, and Jiande were on the second level with carrying capacities ranging from 20 to 30 head/hm^2. Tonglu, Lin an,Chunan and the downtown area were on the lowest level with carrying capacities all below 10head/hm^2. Fourthly, the pollution risk indices in livestock manure ranged from 0.19 to 8.05（based on nitrogen） and 0.14 to 11.68（based on phosphorus）. These results indicated that the pollution risk of livestock manure in Hangzhou was generally low. However, the pollution risk in each district was significantly different. Environmental carrying capacities of the downtown area and counties of Lin an, Chun an and Tonglu were severely overburdened, while Fuyang,Yuhang, Xiaoshan and Jiande had not exceeded their environmental carrying capacity. Overall,the areas with high pollution risk of livestock manure needed to reduce the scale of breeding urgently and transfer the redundant manure to surrounding counties that still have potential carrying capacity. Besides, regions having rich woodland resource also can take the wood land as disposal site to load livestock manure. As a result, more detailed data is in urgent needed to achieve more scientific and accurate results so as to provide scientific basis for layout planning and pollution regulation of livestock and poultry breeding industry in Hangzhou.