交通基础设施促进了中部地区城镇化发展吗?——基于面板数据的空间计量证据

Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Central China Urbanization Development?— Based on the Spatial Econometric Evidence of the Panel Data

文章在分析交通基础设施对城镇化发展影响机制基础上,首先采用Moran指数对中部地区地级市经济增长的空间相关性进行检验,结果表明中部地区地级城市经济增长之间存在显著的空间依赖性,进而分别建立空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM),对中部地区交通基础设施对城镇化发展的空间效应进行实证分析。结果表明:交通基础设施促进了中部地区城镇化发展,但通过与普通计量回归模型结果进行对比发现,忽视空间因素的影响,交通基础设施对城镇化的推动作用存在高估现象,此外,在影响地区城镇化发展的其他因素中,非农产业发展起到突出作用;而考虑了空间因素后,土地扩张对城镇化的拉动作用也进一步降低。

Based on the analysis of traffic infrastructure,impact on the development of urbanization process of the Moran indexinspection level city in central China was first introduced in space since the correlation,the results show that there is signifi-cant spatial dependencies between regional cities in central China,in turn,respectively,set up the spatial lag model and spa-tial light modulator（SLM）error model（SEM）,the transport infrastructure in central China space effect of urbanization on theempirical analysis,comparing with the results with ordinary model of regression analysis found that ignored the common mea-surement of space factors regression,transport infrastructure to urbanization role is overrated phenomenon,in addition,in theother factors affecting the development of regional urbanization,non- agricultural industries development play a prominentrole,and after considering the spatial factors,pull function on the urbanization also further reduce the land expansion.