教育水平、就业结构和中国居民储蓄率

Educational Level,Employment Structure and the Savings Rate of Chinese Residents

基于收入视角和不确定性视角,对教育水平、就业结构和居民储蓄率之间的关系从理论上进行分析,结果表明教育水平、就业结构对居民储蓄率具有正负两方面的影响,它们之间存在着非线性关系。在此基础上选取1990—2013年我国30个省级面板数据,采用动态面板SYS-GMM模型进行实证研究后发现,我国的居民储蓄率随着人均受教育年限的增加呈U形分布,随着非农就业率的增加呈倒U形分布。现阶段我国人均受教育年限大于7年,因此随着人均受教育年限的进一步提升,居民储蓄率也具有进一步增长的趋势;我国的非农就业率已经超过51.5%,因此随着非农就业率的继续增长,居民储蓄率有进一步降低的趋势。

Based on the perspective of income and uncertainty, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the relationship between educational level, employment structure and household saving rate. The results show that the education level and the employment structure have both positive and negative effects on the savings rate of the residents, and there exists a nonlinear relationship between them. On this basis,using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2013,using dynamic panel SYS-GMM model, this paper makes an empirical research and the results reveals that the impact of the education standards on household saving rate shows a “U” distribution,but the increase of non-agricultural employment has a significant correlation with household saving rate in a shape of inverted ＂U＂. At present, per capita education duration in our country has exceeded more than seven years. Therefore, with the further enhancement of per capita education years, household savings rate also has the trend of further growth. But China’s non-agricultural employment rate has exceeded 51.5%,so with the continued growth of non-agricultural employment, residents’ saving storage rate has a trend of further reduction.